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Dec 7, 2012
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then you add on top of it what's coming out of washington. i don't think you should get your hopes up about figuring it out before the end of this year. i think there's a pretty deept chance we go over the cliff and then try to sort it out in the beginning of the year. >> lovely. >> joe, when did 146,000 jobs become good? have we become so pessimistic -- have our expectations come so low we're cheering 146,000 when we should be well over 200? >> plus the downward revisions for the previous two months. >> although, those revisions were almost all in government. mandy makes a good point. 150,000 a month, which has been the average over the past is a months or so, is not great. if this was a normal recovery, we'd be growing at 4% instead of 2 on gdp. employment would be well over 250. however, the good news in today's report was if you look at the household survey, there was clearly a hurricane effect in these numbers. we might actually have printed over 200 absent hurricane sandy. i would argue the trends is getting better. as jim pointed out,
then you add on top of it what's coming out of washington. i don't think you should get your hopes up about figuring it out before the end of this year. i think there's a pretty deept chance we go over the cliff and then try to sort it out in the beginning of the year. >> lovely. >> joe, when did 146,000 jobs become good? have we become so pessimistic -- have our expectations come so low we're cheering 146,000 when we should be well over 200? >> plus the downward revisions for...
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Dec 28, 2012
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>> look, mandy, this is dysfunction palooza in washington. i've been talking about this since november. they can't get a deal done. they won't get a deal done. the market has been way too complacent. wall street, you were wrong. you were wrong. they are not going to get this deal done. the market is going to sell off chase to start 20 thrown. big >> it will continue to sell off. look, guys. here's the thing though. 25% right now of gdp is government spending. historically that's 20%. if there are going to be the spending cuts, that what we want to hear, john boehner. he's the adult in the room right now, guys and is looking like the bad guy because we have to stop the spending cuts. hitting the ceiling on the debt ceiling by monday. $16.3 trillion. you can't put a band-aid on this and suspect everything is going to be great and have howie mandel say deal or no deal. not good for the overall markets or economy. >> it's clear that revenue is not on the table. >> what do you do, run for the s? panic is not an investment strategy. give us some go
>> look, mandy, this is dysfunction palooza in washington. i've been talking about this since november. they can't get a deal done. they won't get a deal done. the market has been way too complacent. wall street, you were wrong. you were wrong. they are not going to get this deal done. the market is going to sell off chase to start 20 thrown. big >> it will continue to sell off. look, guys. here's the thing though. 25% right now of gdp is government spending. historically that's...
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Dec 19, 2012
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so many people -- you want to be bullish, but these guys in washington, and gals in washington, give you so little reason to actually be bullish. you're right. the corporate sector you know, loaded with cash, fundamentals turning positive. >> but this is the big difference from last year, last summer where the economy was so fragile. we were in such a fragile state last suggest so it was easy to tip us over. now we're a little better here in the states but a lot better in china, and a little bit better in europe. >> we've got to get to jim. >> because of the contrarian view, jim, is once we get a deal, we sell right into the deal. >> yeah, that's right. i'm going tonight skunk at the garden party here, and i'm geg going to tell you i never thought we'd get a deal. throwing rocks at each other. more likely we won't get a deal. the economy is as bad as last summer, looking at 1.5% growth for the fourth quarter, maybe the same kind of number for the first quarter. we're going over the cliff in january. that means we're essentially in january because of the fiscal drag will be greater th
so many people -- you want to be bullish, but these guys in washington, and gals in washington, give you so little reason to actually be bullish. you're right. the corporate sector you know, loaded with cash, fundamentals turning positive. >> but this is the big difference from last year, last summer where the economy was so fragile. we were in such a fragile state last suggest so it was easy to tip us over. now we're a little better here in the states but a lot better in china, and a...
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Dec 13, 2012
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hate to be such a short-term trader, because i'm not, but we're hanging on every word out of washington so give me your long-term expectations as well. >> i think the economy is doing quite well, you know, despite the fiscal cliff, and even thought the worries about taxes are affecting investors, they are not really affecting general economic activity, so the good news is the economy's got some sort of head of steam going, so from that perspective if they can do a deal relatively quickly, thin think we're in good shape. >> come on, if you look at the of a dense measures, they are turning down and measures of durable good orders, turning down. our question is housing and recoveries and they account for almost 80% of the economy. you're right, the capital goods orders are hurting, mostly because businesses are uncertain, i agree but general consumer spending, confidence aside. consumers are spending. that's the good news. >> the good news is they are not focused on the fiscal cliff the way businesses are, but at some point everything comes home to roost. sentiment is up, spending is up, b
hate to be such a short-term trader, because i'm not, but we're hanging on every word out of washington so give me your long-term expectations as well. >> i think the economy is doing quite well, you know, despite the fiscal cliff, and even thought the worries about taxes are affecting investors, they are not really affecting general economic activity, so the good news is the economy's got some sort of head of steam going, so from that perspective if they can do a deal relatively quickly,...
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Dec 7, 2012
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we have so much uncertainty in washington. we do have slowing economies in europe and in the u.s. >> right. david, what do you say right now? break the tie for us. >> break the tie. in the near term, there's an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what they're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. >> i'm going to break the tie in ralph's favor. >> david, i want to push back a little bit on that. in terms of -- like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat? >> absolutely. >> it's not losing its bang for its buck? >> it's not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u.s., long bonds, 1.5%. s
we have so much uncertainty in washington. we do have slowing economies in europe and in the u.s. >> right. david, what do you say right now? break the tie for us. >> break the tie. in the near term, there's an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what they're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks...
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Dec 10, 2012
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nothing's happening in washington. there is no movement towards consensus on either side of the debate. people look at that and say what were we so optimistic about? i think the cliff will be more of an effect afterwards. but to go back to stewart's point, he's talking about 2% growth in spending. 2% consumer growth is probably going to produce a very weak gdp number. although we had a nice number on the boost, we'll have a horrible in the next quarter. which isn't great. that's really the point. 11% rise in fedex sales not going to lead in an 11%? consumer spending. at beast we're looking at 2%. that's not good. >> my 2% forecast is for next year. i think we'll do better this quarter. and you don't sell 15.5 million cars in the month of november if consumers can't get the credit. and they're not in somewhat of a spending mood and feel they have the income to justify it. >> well, it is subprime lending that is driving that. 45% of all new leases are subprime. that's not particularly good. they have cut the lease rates
nothing's happening in washington. there is no movement towards consensus on either side of the debate. people look at that and say what were we so optimistic about? i think the cliff will be more of an effect afterwards. but to go back to stewart's point, he's talking about 2% growth in spending. 2% consumer growth is probably going to produce a very weak gdp number. although we had a nice number on the boost, we'll have a horrible in the next quarter. which isn't great. that's really the...